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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."